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Red States and NAFTA

"A renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement could adversely impact Midwestern manufacturing states who swung for Trump in 2016," according to Gregory Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics.

Among the states whose economies rely most heavily on trade with Canada and Mexico, the top five — Michigan, Texas, North Dakota, Kentucky and Indiana — all went for Trump in the November election.

"If Trump renegotiates NAFTA, as he has said he would, activity in these states would likely come under pressure," said Daco.

Chart of States Most Exposed to NAFTA Exports

Trump won most of the Midwest on the promise to bring manufacturing jobs back by renegotiating NAFTA, among other methods. It will be interesting to see how the unemployment rates in these states progress over the coming four years. Currently, the unemployment rates in Michigan, Texas, North Dakota, Kentucky, and Indiana, the states most heavily exposed to NAFTA exports, stand at 5.4%, 4.2%, 3.1%, 5.0%, 5.4%, respectively.